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Many shoppers in the UK have been alarmed by the wave of shoplifting that took place in 2023. The surge in incidents raises questions about the factors contributing to this trend and its implications for crime control.
Is that really true? Here, we assess six of the most popular assertions made about shoplifting in 2023. Are they myth or reality?
1. Is there really a shoplifting epidemic?
Shoplifting has increased—but much of this reflects the fact that it declined 60% in the pandemic. So reports of year-on-year changes are misleading.
Many crime types remain below pre-pandemic levels because we now work from home more than we used to. But by 2023 we were out shopping as much as before. That provided camouflage for shoplifting, so it returned to, and now exceeds, pre-pandemic levels.
In the first six months of 2023, shoplifting reported to police averaged 7% above the pre-pandemic expected level. It then increased to 20% above the expected level in the summer months. While most shoplifting is not reported to police, the available data suggests that the increase is not as dramatic as some accounts suggest.
Myth or reality? Half-myth. To some extent it remains to be determined with better data—but there is a problem.
2. Has the cost-of-living crisis driven people to theft?
It has become common to blame the cost-of-living crisis for rises in shoplifting. However, several facts do not fit with this theory. Shoplifting by dependent drug users, for example, is not due to the cost-of-living crisis.
Likewise, when department stores like John Lewis decry theft of their high-end products, this is not a cost-of-living issue—it implies organized gangs are operating for profit. That explanation, put forward by the retailers themselves, contradicts the idea that increased shoplifting is due to cost-of-living issues.
Myth or reality? Myth and half-truth.
3. Are organized gangs to blame?
Another version of events is more plausible—that organized gangs are the problem.
The pandemic boosted online shopping which made made e-fencing of stolen goods easier, which in turn drives shoplifting. E-fencing via online marketplaces is more efficient and less risky than face-to-face in the street or pub.
The result is that some gangs now steal to order. A recent estimate suggests stolen and counterfeit goods account for 10% of online marketplaces.
Meanwhile, as the retail sector expanded, tempting new products are becoming readily available in large and anonymous self-service shops. Increases in mini-supermarkets means valuable items are closer to the door with fewer staff between the thief and the exit.
In the long term, then, it is change in the retail sector that inadvertently encourages shoplifting. We need more evidence, but organized crime offers a plausible explanation for increased post-pandemic shoplifting.
