A Ukrainian soldier is prominently seen inside an artillery vehicle, firmly stationed in his fighting position as the Russia-Ukraine war rages on in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine on November 20, 2023.
Photographer Diego Herrera Carcedo captures the intense moment. Anadolu | Getty Images
High expectations abounded at the start of 2023 for a much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, set to be launched in the spring, and change the course of the war against Russia.
However, the anticipated shift did not materialize, and the likelihood of a breakthrough in 2024 seems increasingly remote, according to military experts and defense analysts who spoke to CNBC.
While they foresee continued intense fighting into the next year, they don’t expect Kyiv’s forces to launch additional counteroffensives. Meanwhile, Russia is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
Looking beyond the battlefields, military experts predict that the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024 will be primarily determined by the U.S., which is Ukraine’s largest military supporter. They speculate that aid from the U.S. could dwindle in the lead-up to, and after, the U.S. presidential election.
Retired Army Lt. General Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, told CNBC, “War is an uncertain endeavor. Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you’re seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians.”
Twitty also expressed concerns about the balance of power, stating, “We’re in this situation now where if there’s not a clear winner, there’s going to be a stalemate, and there’s going to be, perhaps, a future frozen conflict. What can tilt the balance, in my view, is if the Ukrainians are not resupplied and they don’t get the equipment and people that they need. Then this war could tilt to the Russians,”
Anticipations Unmet
A year ago, Ukraine’s international military support was reportedly strong, with NATO vowing to support Kyiv for “as long as it takes” to defend itself against Russia’s invasion launched in Feb. 2022.
Yet, over the summer, Ukraine’s armed forces encountered significant challenges as they attempted to penetrate heavily fortified Russian positions and defensive lines throughout the 600-mile long frontline across the southern and eastern parts of the country.
After liberating a few villages in the summer, Ukrainian and Russian forces found themselves embroiled in mainly attritional battles, neither side making substantial gains.
Ukrainian military officials have acknowledged that their hopes and expectations for a major breakthrough in the counteroffensive were not met. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s leadership claims to have inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces, and states that its forces have made significant progress in other areas, such as the Black Sea. Ukraine’s bold attacks on Russian bases and assets in Crimea this summer prompted the Russian navy to withdraw a number of warships from Sevastopol.
