Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has been busy shuttling around the Middle East in an attempt to prevent the Israeli conflict in Gaza from escalating into a regional war. However, the United States has also deployed 2 warship strike groups, a Marine Expeditionary Unit, and 1,200 additional soldiers to the Middle East as a “deterrent.” In simple terms, the U.S. is threatening to attack any forces that come to the defense of the Palestinians from other nations in the region, assuring Israel that it can continue killing in Gaza without consequences.
If Israel continues this war, U.S. threats may be powerless to prevent others from intervening. From Lebanon to Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran, the potential for the conflict to spread seems significant. Even Algeria states it is ready to fight on behalf of the Palestinians, based on a unanimous vote in its parliament on Nov. 1.
Middle Eastern governments and their people already see the U.S. as a part of Israel’s violence in Gaza. Any direct U.S. military action will be seen as an escalation on the side of Israel and is more likely to provoke further escalation than to deter it.
The U.S. is currently facing this dilemma in Iraq. Despite years of Iraqi demands for the removal of American forces, at least 2,500 U.S. soldiers remain at Al-Asad Airbase in western Anbar province, at Al-Harir Airbase in Iraqi Kurdistan, and at another small base at the airport in Erbil. There are also several hundred NATO soldiers, including Americans, advising Iraqi forces in NATO Mission Iraq based near Baghdad.
For years, U.S. forces in Iraq have been involved in a low-grade war against the Popular Mobilization Forces formed to combat ISIS. Despite their links to Iran, these armed groups have often disregarded Iranian calls to de-escalate attacks on U.S. forces. The U.S. assassination of Soleimani in 2020 decreased Iran’s ability to restrict the militias in Iraq.
The Israeli war on Gaza has triggered a new escalation of the conflict in both Iraq and Syria. Some militias rebranded themselves as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and started attacking U.S. bases on Oct. 17. After numerous attacks on U.S. bases and airstrikes, U.S. forces carried out airstrikes against Kata’ib Hezbollah bases in Iraq on Nov. 21.
