Predicting the Future: Solcast’s Long-Term Solar Forecast for the Solstice

Welcome to the 2023 update for pv magazine, presented by Solcast, a DNV company. As we approach the holiday season, let’s take a look at the historical average irradiance on Christmas day and the forecasts for Europe and the US, using data from the Solcast API.

Christmas Day is just a few days after the Solstice, which has a significant impact on the amount of sunlight received in different hemispheres. Our analysis reveals intriguing trends in irradiance levels across the globe, providing valuable insights for solar energy production.

Despite the holiday season, solar production continues, and our data shows interesting cloud patterns and weather systems that affect irradiance levels in different regions. Let’s delve into the details and forecasts based on our findings.

This year, the eastern US is expected to receive below-average irradiance over Christmas, while the Midwest and West Coast will enjoy average to above-average irradiance. Meanwhile in Europe, we anticipate varying conditions, with cloud and wind patterns influencing irradiance levels throughout the continent. Our observations shed light on these phenomena and their impact on solar energy generation.

We are able to produce these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at high resolution globally, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms. Our data is vital for calculating irradiance and cloud-tracking forecasts, and is widely used by companies managing solar assets worldwide.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.

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