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This has never happened before, so it comes as a bit of a surprise. But there are some national analysts who are skeptical about the Islanders.
Entering Wednesday’s game against the Penguins, the Islanders’ 41 points were good for second in the Metropolitan Division, third in the Eastern Conference and ninth in the NHL. And yet, national voices seem to agree the Islanders are outside the top 10 teams in the league.
The NHL.com Super 16 pre-Christmas ranking had the Isles 12th. So did ESPN. Bleacher Report had them up at No. 11, but The Athletic had them down at No. 13.
The question here is: Do they have a point?
Or, more eloquently put: Is there good reason for a dose of healthy skepticism about the Islanders’ place in the standings?
Let’s dive in:
The skeptics’ case
The analytics aren’t particularly kind to the Islanders, but before we get there, let’s start with the oldest-school stat that exists: their record.
After Wednesday, the Isles still have lost more games than they have won, with a 16-9-9 record. That is well above NHL .500, but that is only because the NHL is the only league that counts some losses differently from others.
Anders Lee and the Islanders are above “NHL .500,” but not actual .500. Getty Images
That is great for the Islanders in the standings, but it shouldn’t fool us into thinking they are actually that good of a team.
Particularly because their underlying numbers are not all that great.
The Islanders have been one of the luckiest teams in the league by a few different measures. They were seventh in PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage), which generally normalizes, per Natural Stat Trick. Their actual goal differential also was 13 goals better than expected, better than all but three teams, per Hockey Reference.
At five-on-five, the Islanders were generating just 49.06 percent of high-danger chances and 46.37 percent of scoring chances, the latter ranking 28th in the league, per Natural Stat Trick. They were at just 46.93 percent in overall shot share.
All those numbers, by the way, are from before Wednesday’s 7-0 disaster at the hands of the Penguins — a loss that put on display just how significant the Islanders’ defensive flaws are. They have stayed afloat despite a lot of injuries on the back end, but the ship started to sink against Pittsburgh.
The combination of luck, loser points and playing in the weak division and conference has propped up the Islanders. But that can’t last forever.
This team is not winning games as it did a few years ago,
