Is the UK in Danger of Missing its CCS Targets Despite Surpassing Potential?

Home Fossil Energy: Is the UK on track to meet its CCS targets, or will it fall short despite exceeding expectations?

December 1, 2023, by Melisa Cavcic

As the debate surrounding carbon capture and storage (CCS) continues, the UK’s potential to exceed its targets is uncertain. Westwood Global Energy Group warns that delays, cancellations, and project under-delivery could pose a significant risk to meeting Britain’s 2030 targets.

Illustration; Source: Westwood

Following theUK’s first carbon storage licensing round, Westwood’s findings highlight the critical nature of government funding obstacles, crowded license work programs, and challenges in securing access to CO2. The company’s new report, ‘Despite substantial project pipeline, further delays might lead to the UK missing CCS targets,’ highlights that Britain is on track to meet its upcoming carbon storage targets, based on currently reported project schedules.

There is potential for up to 7 carbon storage sites by 2030 with a capacity of over 45 million tonnes per year (MTPA), double the lower end of the nation’s target. The company’s research reveals that the UK is also well-placed against its 2035 aspirations and could exceed more than double its 50 MTPA target.

Stuart Leitch, New Energies Research Manager at Westwood, commented: “While the forecast brings a positive outlook, project targets and reality can often differ. Delays and project under-delivery are not uncommon, and Westwood scenario analysis highlights the importance of the government’s support to ensure the timely commissioning of projects to reach its own targets.”

The UK's carbon storage project pipeline of announced projects with delay to start-up; Source: Westwood< img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="796" height="477" src="https://cdn.offshorewind.biz/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2023/11/30220127/Figure-1_-UK-Carbon-Storage-Project-pipeline-of-announced-projects-with-delay-to-start-up-modelled-v1.jpg" alt="The UK's carbon storage project pipeline of announced projects with delay to start-up; Source: Westwood"/>

Westwood also explores the implications of potential obstacles on the existing carbon storage project pipeline, showing that even small delays will lead the UK to miss its 2030 targets. This study highlights the need for timely project completion by modeling a scenario where Track-1 clusters maintain stage 1 progress but have a two-year delay to subsequent stages and all other announced projects are postponed by 2 years.

Catherine Horseman-Wilson, Senior Analyst– NW Europe at Westwood, stated: “The sector is facing a series of challenges, from funding delays and overcrowded work programs, to access to CO2 and co-location and infrastructure re-use issues, so the likelihood of delays can’t be ignored.

“The UK has a significant opportunity, with a strong capacity to exceed its targets, but contingency planning will be a key ingredient in securing its full potential, particularly in ensuring the strict adherence to schedules and maintaining a reliable CO2 supply.”

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