Great news on the global response to the climate crisis! An analysis released today shows a 70 percent chance that global greenhouse emissions will start falling in 2024, making 2023 the year when emissions peaked.
The report from Climate Analytics, a science and policy institute in Berlin, offers a timely dose of optimism amid recent reports confirming that global emissions are still rising. This is a result of the current government climate targets putting the world on track for well over 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century.
The key takeaway from the report is that if clean technology trends continue and action on reducing methane emissions is stepped up, there’s a better than evens chance that greenhouse gas emissions will start to fall next year. This is significant as scientists warn that global emissions must peak by 2025 to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal within reach.
The predictions are based on a scenario where current growth trends for wind, solar, and electric vehicle (EV) technologies are maintained, and countries signed up to the Global Methane Pledge make “adequate progress” towards their goal of cutting emissions 30 percent by 2030.
Additionally, the rapid rollout of zero-carbon technologies in recent years is set to eat into fossil fuel demand, and it’s projected that installed capacity of renewables would reach around 9 Terawatts by 2030, with wind and solar providing 7.5 Terawatts.
Similar findings from energy think tank Ember note that the world is already close to being on track to meet the proposed goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030. This is a target set to be debated at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai next week.
This rapid growth of zero-carbon technologies would be enough to cover the projected growth of energy demand and start to eat into demand for fossil fuels. Therefore, the scenario sees total fossil fuel demand reaching its peak in 2023, followed by a rapid decline from 2025.
This promising news is a breakthrough, as the report concludes that energy demand growth has historically outstripped renewables deployment, despite record additions of wind and solar.