Get ready for an unprecedented winter following scorching summer and autumn, warn researchers

Brace for a possibly record-breaking winter season after sweltering summer season and fall

Numerous Model Ensemble Prediction of Global Temperature Anomalies for the 2023/24 Winter. System: ° C. Credit: Fei Zheng et al.

The world was shaken by scorching heat waves in 2023’s summer and fall. This raised an important concern: Will it result in the hottest winter season the world has ever experienced?

After scorching summer and fall seasons and historical temperatures, concerns are mounting about what might come next. The global average temperature from June to October 2023 exceeded the 1991-2020 average by 0.57 ℃. August and September exceeded historic averages by 0.62 ℃ and 0.69 ℃, respectively, breaking 2016 records.

From record-breaking days to record-setting seasons, 2023 has continuously made headlines for its unprecedented heat. A re-emergence of the El Niño phenomenon after 7 years fanned the flames during global warming. As a result, there has been widespread interest in the upcoming winter patterns for 2023/24.

To address these concerns, a team from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences conducted extensive research. Using their forecast systems, the team looked at the global climate abnormalities for the 2023/24 winter season.

Their findings predict a moderate to strong Eastern Pacific El Niño with anomalous anticyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific, affecting the winter environments of East Asia and North America.

Brace for a possibly record-breaking winter season after sweltering summer season and fall

Restoration of ENSO over the Past Thousand Years and Three-year La Niña Responses after Tropical Volcanic Eruptions. Credit: Fei Liu

How warm will this winter season truly be? The report emphasizes the combined effects of the El Niño event and the long-term global warming trend. Regions in the mid-low latitudes of Eurasia and most parts of the Americas are likely to experience an extremely warm winter.

There’s a 95% possibility that the global average surface temperature for the 2023/24 winter will set a new historic record. Surface temperatures in China may exceed double the normal temperatures, potentially setting the highest winter temperature record since 1991.

Recent research from the US also indicates the importance of external forces, such as the 2019 Australian wildfires, in triggering multi-year La Niña events.

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