As of November 2022, China is making significant strides in energy production, with a total installed capacity of 2,510 GW. A breakdown of the sources shows that coal accounts for 44% of the capacity, followed by hydro at 16.3%, solar at 14.7%, wind at 13.9%, natural gas at 4.5%, and other fuels at 18.4%. Surprisingly, nuclear only makes up 2.2% of the total domestic capacity, despite having a higher capacity factor and delivering 5% of the total actual power generation.
Looking ahead to Feb 2023, China currently has 55 nuclear units in operation, with 22 more under construction and 70+ planned. The goals are ambitious, with the latest Five Year Plan aiming for 70 GW of nuclear capacity and 3,000 GW total power generating capacity from all fuels by 2025. Moreover, China’s nuclear expansion is in line with its energy transition targets, including reaching carbon neutrality by 2060.
The Chinese Nuclear Society is optimistic, expecting China’s nuclear capacity to reach 150 GW and generate 10% of domestic demand by 2035. That would require an increase of 80 GW every ten years, which could lead to 230 GW by 2045, 310 GW by 2055, and an astounding 670 GW by 2100. However, discussions have also centered on the possibility of achieving 1200 GW of nuclear capacity by 2100, which would necessitate a build rate of approximately 150 GW every ten years.
Looking even further into the future, China is exploring the development of 600 MW high-temperature nuclear pebble bed reactors, potentially offering a seamless transition away from coal power plants. Replacing 2000 coal plants with this technology would yield 1200 GW, reflecting the nation’s commitment to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology trends, including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting-edge technologies, Wang is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high-potential early-stage companies. He also serves as the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and is an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A sought-after speaker, Wang has appeared at TEDx and Singularity University events, as well as on various radio and podcast interviews. He welcomes public speaking and advising engagements.  » …
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