Investor attention focused on the path ahead for the economy and monetary policy as traders wrapped up a significant year for bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to remain little changed on Friday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose less than 2 basis points to 3.866%, while the 2-year Treasury yield inched down about 3 basis points to 4.25%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Treasurys
2023 has been momentous for Treasury yields as the Federal Reserve continued its aggressive hiking campaign. The yield on the 10-year topped the 5% threshold in October for the first time since 2007, before dropping below 3.9% in recent weeks on bets of an end to rate increases and cuts in the new year.
As investors look ahead to 2024, questions linger over when the central bank will begin those expected cuts. The Fed said earlier this month that it expects to cut rates three times next year, but some investors are hoping for further reductions.
Uncertainty also continues about the state of the U.S. economy and whether the Fed will achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession even as interest rates remain elevated.
“We … look for U.S. growth to fall to an annualized rate of less than 1% in H1 2024,” said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding. “Nevertheless, the Fed remains on track to pull off the usually elusive feat of a soft landing in 2024. The easing of underlying inflation has encouraged bond and equity markets to play the Fed pivot theme.”
Schmieding expects the first Fed rate cut in May.
U.S. bond markets closed early on Friday and will remain closed on Monday in celebration of the new year.
